Notes tanker traffic halt due to insurance, not official closure.
Matt
Mike McGlone
The key is if offensive missiles keep leaving Iran. Right now, it's day one, markets are expensive and priced for a worst case. The situation should be 'honed down' by week's end if Iran can't keep firing.
Notes the oil move is big but still under $80, only the 53rd biggest move despite the scale of events.
Dani
Mike McGlone
The 'price maker status' has switched to the Western Hemisphere. US/Canada net surplus is ~8M bpd vs. Iran's <2M bpd exports. This spike accentuates the bear market strategy.