Asks about the transmission mechanism from oil to the Fed's path.
Dani
Michael Ball
Treasuries are no longer the safe haven; the inflationary story is dominant. This weighs on cyclicals and small caps. Fed cuts have moved back to September.
Asks what to expect in stocks given the tug-of-war between safe haven and inflation.
Matt
Michael Ball
The next leg is that financial conditions are no longer easing. The consumer faces uncertainty and higher pump prices. This acts as a tax on the consumer, hurting confidence and multiple expansion.
Michael Ball
The market is spooked because the initial strike killed too many leaders, making a coordinated 'Venezuela-style' leadership change less certain, leading to more prolonged uncertainty.