• Introduces Ryan Dietrich, noting his steadfast confidence in equity markets and new all-time highs, asking for big picture assessment.
    Alex
  • Ryan Dietrich
    Points to 9.1% pullback that caused panic, but emphasizes things are better now. Highlights S&P 500 up three weeks in a row at least 3%, a pattern seen only twice before (1982 lows and post-COVID), both followed by 30% gains a year later.
    States this strength is not a short-covering rally and new highs confirm optimism for a pretty darn good year.
  • Notes the second fastest move from oversold to overbought on 14-day RSI and asks why that makes sense given unexpected events like Middle East war.
    Suggests portfolio managers initially adjust models for shocks but then revert to playbook once assessed.
    Alex
  • Ryan Dietrich
    Cites historical precedent: after top 10 oversold-to-overbought moves, S&P 500 was higher six months later in 9 out of 10 cases.
    Attributes recent market resilience to extreme hedging and bearishness (hedge fund selling, put/call ratio spike), with slow decline showing underlying strength. The rapid oversold-to-overbought move suggests significant gains ahead in six months.
  • Observes market broadening beyond mega-caps has been impressive and healthy, then asks what risks could prove the bull case wrong.
    References conversation with Kevin from Nasdaq about drag from big five stocks, but notes headline index held up better than expected.
    Alex
  • Ryan Dietrich
    Identifies two warning signs: staples outperforming (a defensive bid) and credit spreads blowing out. Currently, staples are underperforming and credit spreads show no over-the-top worry, indicating no bear market.
    Notes market held up despite Microsoft dropping over 30% and an extreme oil price event, supported by these internal indicators.
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