The biggest driver of payroll growth is population growth. If you don't have population growth, you're not going to have payroll growth.

Inflation dominates the story, not labor. We are in an elevated inflation world (3%+). The Fed is wrong to focus on labor.

The unemployment rate creeping up to 4.6% is still very low historically (50-year avg: 5.8%). Structural labor issues (AI, demographics) can't be fixed by rate cuts.

Housing affordability crisis is due to a 3-million home deficit vs. household formation. Slowing population growth could reverse price pressures over 2-5 years.

Disputes Fed claim that inflation ex-tariffs is in low 2s. Sees services inflation at 3-3.4% and overall in high 2s/low 3s.

Precious metals (gold/silver) will continue to go higher, driven primarily by Asian/Chinese demand.

We are in a 'four, five, six world': cash returns 4%, bonds 5%, stocks 6% over the next several years.