The biggest story is AI disruption. It will increase productivity, but markets have gone crazy assuming everything will be disrupted. It will take longer than markets think.

There's a narrative that AI is deflationary, giving scope to cut rates, which is sensible. But over the last 250-300 years, inflation has soared because of policy, not innovation. Inflation is a policy-led vehicle.

I've always been a gold bug because fiat money is inherently inflationary. There's some speculation in gold now. Silver's real price is about the same as in 1790, showing it's not a store of value but a factor of production.

Gold demand spiked after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Reserve managers are diversifying out of heavy dollar holdings into other assets in case dollar assets become unavailable. A lot of recent gold demand is from central bank reserve managers.

Extensive work shows geopolitical shocks have a short half-life on markets, especially the US market. Within 1.5 months, markets are usually back to pre-shock levels or higher. History says you should fade geopolitical news flow, but intensity is rising, so there's a risk of an event that defies that history.

It's difficult for a CEO to plan five years out with uncertainty over a bipolar or multi-polar world. This uncertainty holds back investment.

Too early to say. US data shows job accumulation downgraded, growth firm, productivity up a bit. Hard to attribute to AI. Personal view is AI will benefit productivity, but timing might be more delayed than people think.

Winners and losers from AI have little visibility. Three months ago, market assumed all tech were automatic winners. Recent movement is healthy as it prices a more realistic environment with both winners and losers. By year-end, we still won't know real winners/losers, so plenty of scope for market swings in both directions as they trade narratives.