Asks how to characterize the current macro backdrop as a Goldilocks environment.
speaker1
Warren Pies
Goldilocks is ideal for equities, featuring cyclical disinflation (shelter, oil), a weakening labor market (cyclical & structural from AI), fiscal expansion (~1% of GDP from tax rebates/depreciation), and multiple Fed rate cuts with steady growth.
Asks about potential offsets or divergence scenarios where the market suggests overheating or less Fed accommodation than expected.
speaker1
Warren Pies
Main market risk is overheating in H2 2026 or later, which could end the Fed cut cycle and trigger a true curve steepening (2s-10s over 100bps) as markets anticipate hikes.
Asks if playing the H1 cyclical upturn and friendly Fed is as simple as owning cyclicals, or if there's another way.
speaker1
Warren Pies
Expects a broader market than the last three narrow years, but Tech/Mag7 will reassert leadership alongside non-tech AI beneficiaries and some cyclicality.