Asks why he isn't jittery about AI and if he buys dips.
Lizzy Burton
John Bilton
AI is the fourth major tech revolution. Current capex ratios are below dot-com levels. Profit-taking in December is normal, but earnings and investment continue. Talk of a bubble is premature; there will be buyers on dips.
Asks why he's constructive on Europe.
Anna Edwards
John Bilton
European household savings rates are at record highs outside COVID amid record employment. If the consumer stops adding to savings, growth will get a natural uplift. PMIs point to 1.6% GDP growth, above trend.
Asks if the ECB's next move is a hike.
Lizzy Burton
John Bilton
Expects the ECB to be firmly on hold for the next 6-12 months. Europe is seeing a gradual repair, not a massive reacceleration.
Asks about the deflationary risk from Chinese exports.
Anna Edwards
John Bilton
Chinese domestic issues are the problem, not exports. Expects PBoC to ease policy to support ~5% growth target.
Asks what justifies more Fed cuts other than politics.
Lizzy Burton
John Bilton
Expects one more Fed cut in H1 2026. The Fed brought cuts forward as inflation didn't spike and the labor market softened. After that, data dependency. Sees real growth supported by a pickup in productivity from AI.