Asks how this war ranks compared to past Middle East conflicts and oil embargos.
Matt Miller
Ed Morse
This is more serious than anything since the early 1970s. The Strait of Hormuz closure is unique.
Asks if the conflict will lead to a fundamental rethink of energy flows, like after COVID or Ukraine.
Dani Burger
Ed Morse
Major countries like China and Europe are already doubling down on clean energy due to Middle East dependence.
Asks if he shares Energy Secretary Chris Wright's view that the oil spike will be short-lived.
Matt Miller
Ed Morse
I would turn his remarks from a few weeks to a few months. The gas market is particularly impacted.
Ed Morse
A big latent risk is the Houthis on the western side of the Arabian Peninsula. A full closure there would mean 20 million barrels a day shut off.
Notes a disconnect between expert warnings and market pricing, which suggests a quick return to normal.
Dani Burger
Ed Morse
The futures curve doesn't tell you much; it's a reflection of where macro funds are placing short-term cash, not a predictor.
Asks about the scenario for a 50% rise in oil prices.
Matt Miller
Ed Morse
If the Houthis shut the western side, that's 20 million barrels a day. We'll see at least two more weeks of bombing energy infrastructure.
Asks what he would advise governments to do to mitigate price rises.
Dani Burger
Ed Morse
They are doing what they have to do. Releasing strategic stocks can help, but it takes a month or two to hit the market.