Reports on conversation with ECB President Christine Lagarde. Lagarde said when there are big clouds on the horizon, the captain does not leave the ship, and she is not going to leave.

The world economy is not fine despite markets being higher. Finance chiefs feel they can't catch a break and lack fiscal space to support citizens.

Cites sequence of crises: COVID (2020), Ukraine invasion and energy spike (2022), tariffs (last year), Middle East conflict (this year).

Central banks, including the ECB, now think in scenarios (baseline, adverse, severe) instead of simple upside/downside risks due to extreme difficulty predicting the world economy.

Explains adverse scenario could be some kind of peace deal, severe is full-blown war disrupting energy markets for months/years. Lagarde said current situation is between adverse and baseline.

No one is optimistic. Leaders are worried about interest rates, Middle East fallout, central bank policy, IMF support needs, fragmentation/de-globalization, tariffs, and private credit risks.