Current market rally to all-time highs is largely driven by short covering and euphoria, masking a more complicated macro outlook.

Points out professional money managers were under-invested and short, forcing cover. Uses software sector outperformance as example of short-covering, not fundamental commitment.

You cannot ignore a 60% rise in energy prices, though the US can look through it better than Europe or China.

Market optimism on Iran is myopic; the fact both regimes want to negotiate takes worst-case scenario off the table, driving price action.

Bullish on energy in the short term and on solar/nuclear in the medium to long term due to a seismic shift in how countries think about energy security and onshoring.

Links to trends from Trump administration: restacking rules, self-sufficiency, removal of peace dividend, pandemic supply chain lessons. All point to increased onshoring and industrial production.