This is the most mesmerizing FOMC meeting since COVID. The Fed should acknowledge elevated risks to both employment and price stability in the statement and SEP. They should leave one rate cut for this year and one for next year. Dissents are the most critical thing—whether Waller and/or Bowman follow Miron will tip the Fed's hand on what they're more worried about.

Probability of rate hikes is pretty much zero. Central banks have learned from 2008 and 2011: when you have a geopolitical orthogonal shock that tightens financial conditions, you don't pile on by hiking rates unless you see it passing through to core prices and wages, which we're a long way from.

Private credit hasn't been through a shakeout yet; recessions create the ultimate shakeout. The big concern is volatility in private credit markets.

Financial condition indicators have gone nowhere. There's a sense of complacency across the market, perhaps because so much liquidity overwhelms the concerns for now.

The Fed went into this Iran war concerned about the labor market. Now, with higher energy prices creating a tax on businesses and households, they're going into this meeting even more concerned about the labor market than the pass-through of the oil shock.

I'm gobsmacked by the Fed's decision. They're saying all this in the Middle East is a speed bump. Inflation will tick up a few tenths, the economy will accelerate, unemployment stays stable. I just don't see that. I think there's a real impact to inflation and ultimately to the economy and labor market.

The market is looking through the Fed and saying the projections don't make sense. It's completely dismissive of the FOMC statement. Where we are now is about fair; it can go either way from here.