I'm not taking the dots seriously this time; it has to be like throwing darts. Given we don't know how long this lasts, it's really a guess. During COVID they suspended the dots; this time it will be difficult to pin down a precise estimate.

What the Fed is probably concerned about right now is inflation expectations. I'm looking at the break-evens in the TIPS market; they continue to move up. The Fed has focused on inflation expectations many times in the past.

Having experienced oil shocks in my past, the Fed doesn't want to make the mistakes of the past. The 1970s were a disaster because the Fed was too late to address inflation coming from oil price shocks.

It's a real risk we'll see some pass-through from oil prices. Consumer demand has been resilient. If that continues, the ability to pass through price increases will be there. It's a difficult position for the Fed.