The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. But it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.

We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our goals. The median participant projects the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4% at the end of this year and 3.1% at the end of next year, unchanged from December.

The thing that's really important that we see this year is progress on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation as the one-time effects of tariffs go through the system.

On looking through energy shocks: It's standard learning that you look through energy shocks, but that's always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining well anchored. Now it's also dependent on the broader context of five years of inflation above target.

If my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as chair, I would serve as chair pro tem until he is confirmed. I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over.

We are in a difficult situation. The risks to the labor market are to the downside, which would call for lower rates, and the risks to inflation are to the upside. Our framework calls on us to balance the risks.

I would reserve the term stagflation for a much more serious set of circumstances. That is not the situation we're in. What we have is some tension between the goals.