Asks how Bloomberg economics team is thinking about Iran war impact and whether markets are brushing off higher energy prices.
Carol Masser
Jennifer Welch
We did scenario exercise before conflict looking at worst-case scenarios. If sustained persistent disruptions to energy facilities in region, Strait of Hormuz, that could lead oil prices to top $100, estimate up to $108/barrel.
Asks how she defines short-term vs long-term and what would get oil to $108/barrel.
Tim Stenavak
Jennifer Welch
Key to figure out how long disruptions will last. Strait of Hormuz effectively paralyzed. US trying to reopen with naval escorts, insurance. Risk is even if you take out missile launchers, Iran still has other weapons to disrupt traffic.
Asks about reports of off-ramps and Iran foreign minister ready to abandon nuclear program.
Carol Masser
Jennifer Welch
Important point: multiple actors in Iran don't all speak with same voice. Need to pay attention to more authoritative voices - probably more hard-line, conservative, less willing to work with US.