Asks for timeline of disruption and how long it will take to get barrels back to market once pipelines are turned back on.
Tyler
Bob McNally
Based on June analysis and military consultation, disruption will last weeks, with 30 days as a base case. No minimum safety for US Navy or commercial ships to enter.
Notes McNally's sobering, accurate takes and questions impact of IEA's 400M barrel release and potential for $150/barrel oil.
Host
Bob McNally
DOE will release barrels, but steps won't matter as Hormuz artery is too big. Oil prices will continue in triple digits until ceasefire or prices enforce 'iron law of economics' by slowing growth.
Asks if domestic producers can benefit given uncertainty and risk of government intervention.
Tyler
Bob McNally
Domestic producers are cautious because price spikes signal coming crashes. They will hunker down and wait.
Asks if $4 gasoline is next if crude stays in triple digits.
Host
Bob McNally
Yes, national average will head to $4. Real question is if we exceed 2022 pump price highs. We are losing 15-20M barrels/day with no end in sight.
Asks if it's the right time for government to buy crude oil futures.
Host
Bob McNally
Federal government should not be involved in futures markets. It's dangerous to bet taxpayer money.