Focus is on potential prolonged congestion in Strait of Hormuz - 1/5 of global oil and LNG passes through daily. US troop buildup suggests preparation for sustained attack, which could prop up oil prices.

US is insulated: 70% of imports from Canada/Mexico, small portion from Middle East. Europe more exposed due to reliance on GCC after Russian supply flatlined. Asia also exposed, though China improving gas independence.

Debate between inflation vs price levels. Companies passing on tariff costs to consumers. Inflation soft due to shelter (44% of CPI) with 29 months of rent declines, plus soft transportation/energy.

Risk exists given strong jobs data. If labor market healthy and companies not massively cutting from GenAI, Fed can focus on inflation mandate.

Interesting to see if conflict drives safe-haven flows to Swiss franc or yen rather than dollar. DXY down ~10% last year; forecast another 10% this year, then not much further room.

St. Louis Fed research contrasts with dot-com: overwhelming investment in data centers (real estate, leveraged, infrastructure). Could see moment where companies realize not getting expected ROI, concentrated in tech.

When looking at capex-to-earnings, things look slightly frothy, concerning investors.

Residential electricity prices forecast up 8% this year - acute for lower-income households. Administration pushing hyperscalers to bid for energy contracts. Problem compounded if wind/solar removed from mix.

Acute shortage of construction workers in US - some call it a gold rush. Restrictive immigration policy compounds issue. Wages for construction rising significantly.