Asks about the latest inflation scare from energy prices and shipping costs.
David
Arthur Budaghyan
Not worried about energy shock translating into inflation. Higher energy prices might restrain global demand. Worried about weaker growth and subsequent disinflation.
Asks if this means bonds are a buy and where to park money.
David
Arthur Budaghyan
For the next nine months, the key driver will be the dollar falling. This will force a narrowing of the US current account deficit, shrinking US imports, depressing global manufacturing/exports, which is disinflationary.
Asks about gold in the context of disinflation.
Yvonne
Arthur Budaghyan
Gold is overbought and vulnerable to correction. Purchases driven by retail/portfolio investors, not central banks. Would buy gold below $2400-$2500, not chasing it higher now.
Asks what to buy instead of the dollar.
David
Arthur Budaghyan
Believes the dollar will depreciate substantially vs Asian and European currencies over the next 12 months. Dollar depreciation is disinflationary for the rest of the world.