Ranks this as the most serious conflict since early 1970s, noting the Strait of Hormuz wasn't closed in previous wars. Observes a global rethink on energy dependence is already underway, led by China and Europe doubling down on clean energy.

Extends the timeline from 'a few weeks' to 'a few months', citing specific disruptions: 20% of globally traded LNG from UAE/Qatar offline for at least a month, and latent risk from Houthis in western Arabian Peninsula which could shut down total Middle East exports.

Criticizes market complacency ('too sanguine'), stating futures curve reflects low liquidity and macro fund positioning, not fundamental supply risks over next few years.

Explains crude (Brent/WTI) doubled from ~$65-70 to $103, while US gasoline rose only 15-16%, lagging due to storage and logistics. Asian product prices (jet fuel, diesel) have spiked more dramatically due to Middle East product export curtailment, signaling $4/gallon US pump prices are imminent.

Outlines scenario: Houthis activate, shutting western Arabian Peninsula, cutting total Middle East exports to 20 million bpd. Expects at least two more weeks of bombing energy infrastructure and tanker attacks. Hardline Iranian leadership chosen, fighting for regime survival.

Says governments are doing what they must (price controls where possible). US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (G7 discussing 300-400M barrels) will cause market to fall but takes 1-2 months to hit market, and price relief may be temporary.