We don't play knee-jerk reactions to headlines. We look at cycles. The window of vulnerability on growth is not open.

The game changer coming into this year was the inflation cycle upturn. Goldilocks was last year.

The US inflation cycle upturned on the back of a global industrial upturn which pushed up commodity prices way before the war at the end of last year, and it's gone global.

Future inflation gauges for Japan turned up cleanly at the beginning of the year. Germany as well. Even in China, the future inflation gauge is moving to the upside.

JGBs at a 29-year high, Bunds at a 15-year high, yields are higher. That is a tell that the global inflation cycle upturn which preceded the war is a thing.

The answer is yes. Inflation is going to go higher. You have coincident data starting to confirm that: core PCE's over 3, core PPI is approaching 4.

That's the beauty of cycles. It's on or off. There's a lot of noise, but what's the underlying direction?

The Fed might trot out 'transitory' again if there's a ceasefire and oil prices come down. But we're saying there's a cyclical upturn that goes much broader than simply oil prices.

There's bottlenecks in the system, supply chain issues, productivity not holding up, and pent-up demand at the top.

That's the hope, that it's an inflationary boom. You're getting whiffs of that right now. But is that really what's going to happen if inflation is persistent to the upside and the Fed can't do what it hopes?