Calls it a 'Hail Mary' move by Trump due to lack of other options. Questions its logistical feasibility (where to detain ships) and the status of lifted sanctions.

Sees it as US pressure, but Iran is resilient and shows no sign of backing down. The key takeaway is that we are witnessing a refashioning of the global system, not temporary disruptions.

The rules-based order that allows business to operate is breaking down, leading to volatility unrelated to company fundamentals.

Without a profound US/Iran/Israel peace commitment, the Gulf enters a new paradigm where countries cannot guarantee safety for business. This means permanently higher costs and risk margins for everything, not just a temporary oil price spike.

Companies will need to factor in a 'higher risk margin' affecting all operations, implying structurally higher commodity prices and operating costs.