Asks how to square market optimism with high-stakes geopolitical deadline.
Lisa Abramowitz
Marvin Loh
Risk assets show less downside than expected; earnings estimates are up, providing fundamental support.
Timing of looking past conflict is questionable, but fixed income and dollar markets suggest longer-term concerns.
Asks what it would take for equities to price in sustained higher energy prices.
Notes earnings rise is due to energy stocks.
Lisa Abramowitz
Marvin Loh
Would take a broad global slowdown, which isn't prevalent in commentary yet.
Recessionary risk and inflation show up occasionally but not a broad slowing.
Asks if S&P will coalesce around big tech leadership.
Lisa Abramowitz
Marvin Loh
Yes, big tech was second-best performing sector; institutional flows show reordering into beaten-up tech sectors.
Asks how to square open capital markets with risk aversion elsewhere.
Cites Microsoft bond deal attracting huge volume.
Lisa Abramowitz
Marvin Loh
Liquidity exists for large names; credit market reopened with nearly $100B in deals.
Private credit discussion is still fragile, debating if it's a liquidity or credit issue.
Asks if stagflation could expedite a credit cycle test.
Notes credit cycle hasn't been tested since 2008.
Lisa Abramowitz
Marvin Loh
Concerned but dynamics are different from GFC; broad liquidity keeps valuations from adjusting quickly.