Introduces Bob McNally and questions his skepticism about military escorts or US Treasury insurance backstops for Strait of Hormuz security.
Brian
Bob McNally
The core issue is a timing mismatch. The US will prevail militarily, but suppressing Iran's asymmetric threats (drones, mines, missiles, boats) will take weeks, not the days or hours the market expects.
Notes Qatar Energy (largest LNG producer) is offline due to attack and has declared force majeure, which benefits US LNG exporters. Asks why oil/gas markets aren't responding more to McNally's warnings.
Brian
Bob McNally
Gives two reasons for muted market response: 1) Seven years of 'boy cried wolf' since 2019 Abqaiq attack, making the market bored/skeptical of geopolitical disruptions. 2) Traders can't conceive of the US allowing the Strait to be shut for more than a few days, as it's never happened before.
Asks for details on Iran's military capabilities.
Brian
Bob McNally
Details Iran's layered capabilities: thousands of drones (Shaheed), fast attack craft, anti-ship cruise missiles, long-range artillery, and various mines (floating, rocket). Reiterates conflict will not be over in a couple of days.
Asks how far along the US is in degrading those weapons.
Brian
Bob McNally
Not far along yet regarding Hormuz-disrupting assets. Initial strikes targeted larger missile launchers and command control. The real threats to tankers remain largely intact. The key question for next week is whether coming US attacks will suppress these capabilities.