We saw an extraordinary premium paid for a physical cargo today, which tells you there's extreme physical stress in the market, unprecedented. You have an extraordinary tanker shortage because of tankers trapped behind the strait.

You're seeing $10 to $20 a barrel to move crude.

Every day from now is an incremental shortage. You're going to see physical shortages in Asia, no question. Diesel, jet fuel over $250 a barrel in Singapore, which will have an enormous negative economic impact.

This time, you can't buy it if you want it, or you've got to pay enormous amounts of money for it.

With emergency releases, we've got at least four weeks of continued outage. You're going to burn through your emergency stocks and then have a nasty decision. The basic forecast shows a drawdown of about a billion barrels over the next 60-90 days, which is completely unprecedented.

It's difficult to imagine why [oil prices] wouldn't be higher. You assume the Iranians are going to extract maximum pain here until they get what they want. Nobody's asking what Iran wants and how far they'll go.

The idea that the Iranian command structure has broken down... we seem to have a very consistent pattern where they set a deadline, it's not met, and they do exactly what they said they would. That's pretty terrifying.