• Market sees maybe two cuts this year. How many do you guys see?
    David
  • Masahiko Lou
    We see two to three cuts. Later half the year. First half the year is going to be a pretty good year in the US with all the fiscal spending coming up. Second half you see a bit of unemployment ticking up and that's when we see there will be more cuts priced in the market.
  • Would that be a good representation of the path of the dollar up slightly and then down into next year?
    David
  • Masahiko Lou
    Market is pricing in a gradual downtrend of the dollar. That will basically encourage investors to increase their hedge ratio.
  • Gold has still been reflecting that shift away from sovereign bonds and currencies. Now we're at 5500 an ounce. What do you make of it?
    David
  • Masahiko Lou
    I've never been so much discussion regarding gold from every single industry, real money, long only. The whole point of gold is finite supply. When you have demand coming in, especially from central banks and also from ETFs... We think that whenever a gold dip is, the mentality now is to buy on dips instead of sell, take profit when it goes higher.
  • Is there any value right now across this JGB curve that you would be advocating investors to dip by?
    David
  • Masahiko Lou
    I think it's pretty attractive for current level. Look at ten year JGBs traded 1.25. We start seeing real money banks, insurance companies coming out saying that they will buy from 2% when yield is 2.3%. But they're waiting for BOJ to hike... When you get volatility subsides, that's when they come in and that will be a late 2026 story.
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