Talk to us about the stakes for India in this war on Iran.
Host
K.C. Singh
GCC is India's largest trading partner with $78B trade, 10M expats sending 1/3 of India's remittances, and energy security dependence on Gulf increased after US pressure on Russian oil.
How vulnerable is India's energy security right now?
Host
K.C. Singh
India has 1.5-2 months of reserves but will likely return to importing Russian oil despite US pressure due to Gulf instability.
What do you make of US military actions against Iranian facilities?
Host
K.C. Singh
Iran prepared after last year's confrontation with underground facilities and domestic drone production; wants to drag conflict to punish Israel and raise oil prices.
What are biggest economic risks beyond energy?
Host
K.C. Singh
$178B trade with Gulf, Dubai as critical entrepot, $100B+ remittances at risk; even 100K returnees could create political backlash during Kerala elections.
Might there be backlash against Modi given his Israel visit?
Host
K.C. Singh
BJP not counting on Muslim votes, uses polarization for electoral consolidation, but damages India's traditional neutrality and ability to mediate.
Concern about protests in Jammu and Kashmir?
Host
K.C. Singh
15% of India's Muslims are Shias concentrated in key towns; traditionally voted for BJP but may shift after Iran conflict.
Why hasn't Modi responded officially to Supreme Leader's death?
Host
K.C. Singh
India prioritizing US trade deal negotiations over balanced response to Iran; will require effort to rebuild India-Iran confidence post-conflict.
Can India maintain neutrality protecting Gulf interests?
Host
K.C. Singh
Neutrality proving expensive in disrupted global order; transactional arrangements and opportunism becoming hallmark of international relations.