Agrees ECB shock is larger due to energy imports; ECB has single mandate (price stability) vs Fed dual mandate; ECB may look through shock initially but inflation has been high.

Notes stagflationary shock would bring growth contraction and higher unemployment, which central banks must factor in.

Acknowledges possible policy error; cites ECB hiking in 2008 and 2011 during oil shocks which didn't pan out well.

Notes Powell said committee not considering hike now; bar is high due to dual mandate and weak job creation; Middle East uncertainty may put Fed on hold temporarily.

Suggests when uncertainty resolves, Kevin Warsh may lower rates to neutral around 3%.