Questions why the Fed is meeting next week without the jobs report, suggests they should delay.
Matt Miller
Rick Reider
There's little ambiguity about hiring velocity slowing; the Fed has enough data to cut and move the funds rate closer to 3%.
Asks if a cut is a lock and about dissent within the Fed.
Matt Miller
Rick Reider
Doesn't think a cut is 100% locked but probable; some dissent is not a structural problem, just differing data interpretation.
Asks about the impact of rate cuts on lower-income consumers and whether cuts are less effective now.
Matt Miller
Rick Reider
The overnight rate is less effective; long-end rates (5-10 year) matter more for corporate finance, mortgages, and structure finance.
Asks where the 10-year yield will be at end of 2026.
Matt Miller
Rick Reider
Sees the 10-year yield at 3.5-4%, with stability in that range being crucial.
Asks how the Fed can control rates out the curve.
Matt Miller
Rick Reider
The Fed has many tools beyond the funds rate: balance sheet, forward guidance, and managing the long end of the curve where real efficacy lies.