States that longer-term yields are likely to stay elevated due to uncertainty (Iran), which sustains the term premium, and higher oil prices lifting inflation expectations.

Breaks down yield moves into Fed policy, inflation expectations, and term premium. Notes the positive for investors is more income, creating opportunities at attractive yield levels.

Argues higher oil prices transmit to broader costs (plastic, shipping), which is the Fed's real concern. The Fed is in a good position and will likely remain on hold for the next few meetings.

Cites a solid labor market and inflation concerns as reasons for the Fed's wait-and-see stance, looking at how long oil prices stay elevated.

Advises against taking on much credit risk as spreads are tight, but maintaining existing allocations is fine. Recommends an intermediate duration strategy, mixing short and long term, as longer-term yields will stay elevated and the Fed is on hold.

Notes spreads widened with Iran war but are now back to pre-war levels. Suggests a ladder strategy to remove interest rate timing guesswork.