The single biggest market overhang is how long the Middle East crisis lasts. Base case is for a resolution, as historical geopolitical risks have been contained and normalized relatively soon.

Approached with scenario analysis: downside case of 5900 for S&P if things go wrong, but raised price target and earnings estimate last week.

The US economy is more immune to the crisis than Asia or Europe because it is a net energy exporter.

The US economy can absorb oil at 85-100 level, though it will impact consumption. Global growth takes a hit, but US remains relatively more resilient, supporting S&P 7650 target.

Notes a positive 550 basis point delta in earnings revisions, driven by the part of the market de-rated the fastest.