Key narrative shift from trade war headwinds to AI spending, industrial renaissance, and tax policy tailwinds. The 'big build for build' bill will lift GDP by 0.9%. Risk is the economy accelerates over coming quarters as businesses use immediate expensing, leading to more hiring and capex.

Underlying health of US economy is very strong and should accelerate employment. Immigration restrictions are an issue, but AI spending continues to point to a strengthening labor market.

Economy shifted from stagflation to risk of overheating. Strong PPI and upcoming CPI point to upside inflation risk. This creates challenges for the Fed, which has signaled cuts. The Fed may need to keep rates flat or even discuss hiking later this year.

Correct. Additionally, retroactive tax changes mean households will get larger refunds this spring, lifting consumer and retail spending for several months. Summer market setup is for a stronger economy.

Exactly. Dollar is higher, yields are higher. Equities are still focused on AI with low index vol, but single-stock vol is high. The macroeconomic backdrop is very clear: things are looking pretty good.