Volatility is complicated; it can be emotional or a distribution of outcomes. We're in a world with many uncertain outcomes: AI capex, geopolitics, stretched valuations. Tanker rate spikes add to cost structures amid existing inflation concerns. Many crosswinds exist while we're only 2% from all-time highs.

The market is setting the tone for rates. Looking at the last six times the US was involved in a war, only in 1990 did interest rates go up (bond sell-off), during a similar commodity-driven inflationary period. Not many are betting on short-term rate cuts now.

Oil price impacts consumption. We have a high risk of a stagflationary environment with rising company costs. But consumption destruction will eventually lower prices and find equilibrium. I don't think oil will remain persistently high for a protracted period, especially with the news of US escorting ships through Hormuz, which will lower insurance costs. The market has taken it better than I expected.

Even if you hate the dollar or gold, their high liquidity profiles garner a premium during panic when people need to move money quickly. The dollar is still the global reserve currency.

A challenging question. For retail via 401(k)s, money flows in automatically. For asset managers/hedge funds, it's different. Last year was factor switching, not dialing risk up/down. This year, will we see continued drift higher with dispersion, or a broader market repricing driven by credit woes or geopolitical hiccups? That's why we saw a severe reaction the last 48 hours.