Markets and economy are insulated from oil shock due to reduced oil intensity; fiscal stimulus provides cushion for next 6 months; market will be on sugar high for next 3 months.

Oil intensity down 75% since 1970s; only 1.4% of S&P opex from oil even at $100; fiscal stimulus from 'one-be-period fulfill' bill.

Yes, tech is going higher; bullish on hyperscalers due to free cash flow inflecting higher as top line accelerates; AI compute power demand will continue growing.

Turned bullish few weeks ago; free cash flow estimates for hyperscalers cut 70% over past year but now inflecting higher; capacity coming online, demand outpaces supply.

70% estimate revision already happened; sentiment was very bearish; valuation contracted 30% at NASDAQ lows; now risk is to upside.

Valuation and positioning reset in March; hyperscalers were funding short for many hedge funds.

Likes NASDAQ more broadly; software is dead money despite valuation reset; prefers semis over software; AI bull market moving from capex-driven to monetization phase.

Software trades at same multiple as department stores; earnings revised higher but stocks deteriorated; semis outperformed software for almost 3 years.