The bond market has several factors affecting it including geopolitics and trade talks. Friday was a big wake-up call, and while there was some rebound, the real test will be when the US market opens. The olive branch toward China gives hope for negotiations.

The consensus trade is under real test. Since 'liberation day,' investors have been short dollar and long euro. Now some flipping occurs but the dollar bounce might be short-term due to strong US consumer fundamentals offsetting Europe's weakening indicators.

The Fed likely remains on autopilot for a rate cut barring very strong or very weak signals. Alternative data show conflicting trends, but CPI is expected to be hot. Tariffs will feed through to inflation in coming months, with a peak possibly by April.

US-listed rare earth miners are up 20-25%. Markets may be pricing in no rollback on China's export controls or expect quicker US government action. Strong tech rebounds also evident.

The escalation in rare earth controls could pose supply issues and inflationary pressures. But the market seems to expect some moderation given strategic importance and US business sentiment.