Describes a dramatic weekend: initial optimism for reopening on Friday was reversed by Saturday, with Iran reaffirming control and reports of gunfire at vessels. The US then seized an Iranian-linked ship. The situation is now a standstill with no vessels passing and hundreds waiting.

The IRGC did not accept the US decision to maintain its naval blockade, leading to the re-closure.

Confirms the US plans to send a delegation led by JD Vance, but Iran has not committed to attending, citing that the US has not taken negotiations 'seriously enough'. The IRGC also plans retaliation for the ship seizure.

Key obstacles are the ongoing naval blockade and disagreements over the enriched uranium stockpile.