How could oil prices be impacted by further developments?
Francine Lacqua
Ziad Daoud
$19 of current $84 oil price is due to Iran war risk. Two risks: attacks on energy infrastructure and closure of Strait of Hormuz.
Who wins/loses from oil spike?
Francine Lacqua
Ziad Daoud
Winners: oil producers/exporters outside Middle East (Russia, Norway, Canada). Losers: big net importers (Europe, China, India) via higher inflation, lower growth.