We dialed down risk due to disconnect; now focusing on thematic opportunities accelerated by events: energy security/independence.

80% of people live in oil-importing countries, 60% in gas-importing countries; supply disrupted, infrastructure impacted, resilience building will continue.

Energy sector only 4% of S&P 500, could grow; renewable, clean tech, electro-tech themes interesting.

All-of-the-above energy approach needed, especially with AI data center buildout.

Markets complacent about disinflation; supply shock against backdrop of above-target inflation makes central banks' job challenging.

Question shifting from 'can they cut?' to 'can they hike fast enough to catch up with inflation?' Real rates may remain accommodative even if they hike.

High debt levels in DM economies may limit how far central banks can hike, making trade-offs impossible.

Debt servicing considerations constrain central bank action.

Directional equity convictions neutral for US and broader equities; leaning into themes: supply chain resilience, infrastructure, defense.

Themes accelerated regardless of war outcome; European defense names rerated but looking globally for addressable market.

Modest overweight dollar EM debt via index with Latin America exposure, well-positioned on energy importer/exporter spectrum.

Reversal of crowded positions early 2023 caught up EM, but structural improvement in EMD quality supports longer-term view.

AI transformation conviction increasing despite volatility; spending continues, winners will emerge over time.

Time lag between spending and revenue creation causes narrative swings; losers becoming clear (those without vertically integrated systems).