December Fed cut probability swinging from 30% to 70% shows market has no clue - it's 50-50, will be a close call

2026 will be better than 2025 which is the soft patch - economic data was supposed to slow down and did slow down but was masked by equities making new highs

2026 recovery driven by loss of headwinds: tariffs already set, tax policy understood, inflation coming down, plus fiscal stimulus

Labor market will get stronger but weaker first - real unemployment around 4.8-4.9%, expect to get there with weak momentum into 2026 Q1 then recovery

Overweight equities vs fixed income - fixed income spreads very tight, rates have come down, almost priced to perfection

Equities show most upside potential for 2026 market broadening beyond Mag 7 to other 493 stocks

Private equity looks better than private credit currently - bad news and valuation arguments in past, private credit still has worry

No spillover from private credit to public credit markets - default risks stay low with no recession in 2026

Cash demand driven by market fragility with narrow leadership - catalyst to move off sidelines is market broadening for diversification