Not quite yet. Slight lull in bombardment, fragile ceasefire. Optimism about further talks keeping Brent around $95.

Critical issue is opening Strait with no tariffs, escorts, mines, or risks. Market confused by US blockade's strategic motive as tightening supplies means higher prices.

Disconnect between physical market (panic) and financial market (cautious optimism). Best source for immediate barrel is strategic reserves.

Higher prices will lead to more non-Gulf production over time.

Only balance to tight supply is reduced demand. IEA suggests Q2 demand drop needs to be on scale of COVID 2020.

Refiners and petrochemical producers curtailing rates, flight cancellations reducing jet demand. 43 countries have announced measures to shield consumers or reduce consumption. Only opening of Strait prevents acute global economic impact.

Huge logistical lag upon reopening. Rapid return to normality is wrong. Market behavior will change: focus on energy security, optionality, resource nationalism, hoarding, stock building.

Conflict exposed absence of optionality. Gulf producers unlikely to want to give Iran this much control again, will explore alternate routes.

Gradual withdrawals. US SPR has 172 million barrels promised. Once removed, further drawdown limited. China's opaque reserve (est. 1.2-1.4M barrels) is best repository.

China relatively well-insulated.

Agrees. More military vessels increase operational risk of incident. If vessels can transit without being stopped, it gives market optimism.

US blockade may allow non-Iranian crude vessel through.