Blockade targets Iranian ships specifically and ships that paid tolls to Iran. Market watching for clampdown on Iranian ships or toll-paying vessels.

Based on Trump's Truth Social post; officials say case-by-case situation.

Physical supply unchanged - only 5-10 ships daily vs 135+ pre-war. Market perceives risk premium: How long will Hormuz stay shut? Risk of tit-for-tat with Iran if oil exports threatened.

Oil prices jumped 8%, European gas up 18% due to risk perception, not physical supply change.