Everything in the synthetic world comes from the barrel of oil. The Persian Gulf is a big producer of chemicals and refineries produce feedstocks for chemical plants worldwide. There are multi-layer shortages because almost everything in the Persian Gulf is shut down due to lack of storage capacity.

Even with no damage, restarting takes months. Plants don't turn on with a switch - need to inert pipelines with nitrogen gas (limited supply), move inventory out of Gulf, and bring new ships in. Compares to Winter Storm Uri in US Gulf Coast.

Expects it will take through third quarter, maybe into year-end. That's why Dow will be raising prices again in May, June, or July.

Oil sets the cost curve for basic petrochemicals. Futures market predicts oil won't go back down to $60-65. When we come back down, we probably don't return to pre-conflict levels.

On average takes about four months for pricing to peak, then stays plateaued until things restart. We haven't peaked yet and may stay at plateau towards latter part of this year.

PPG affected as large architectural paint company in Australia/Asia. Where there are jet fuel or gasoline shortages, there will be chemical/plastic material shortages. Need to bring demand down to balance reduced supply through rationing pricing.

High prices cause substitution: more metal pails, paper instead of plastic, natural fibers instead of synthetics.

PFAS is separate from Persian Gulf issue. Most PFAS molecules don't have replacement products, so PFAS chemistry will be around long-term. Zero chemicals not possible, not enough natural materials to satisfy all needs.

Can temporarily substitute backwards (steel pails, paper) but world doesn't want to go backwards.

Electronic chemicals companies doing great: Corning, Integra Semiconductor Chemicals, CUNY-DLE Electronics, Element Solutions (top pick).

Recently added CF Industries (ammonia producer). Ammonia prices soared but US planting season underway, US becomes net exporter after May, so ammonia prices will come down pretty hard. Have sell on CF Industries.