We entered the year with heavy risk positioning after strong markets last year. We're now going through significant reshuffling of winners and losers around the AI trade, which creates volatility. Volatility isn't surprising after the last few years.

This is the evolution of a broad, disruptive technology making its way into the economy. We're starting to see the fruits of the capital spent. We're still early and will be surprised by some losers; winners might not be names we know yet.

Views the rate cut discussion as fairly narrow. The economy will define how aggressive the Fed can be. We need to think about balance sheet policy, communications, and the fact bond yields have been suppressed by a vocal, active Fed for 10-15 years. A return to a pre-that environment requires more premium.

We should expect volatility to continue. Positioning is still heavy. It's a rotation; people own a lot of stocks and are figuring out which ones to keep. For Treasury yields, there's a need for a safety bid amid volatility, but the concerns that kept us from liking sub-4% yields last year (deficit, inflation settling above 2%) are not answered.

Liquidity is always a concern, especially with capital pulled into AI funding large business models. However, his read is that liquidity is still ample enough to create an orderly market as we find clearer value for these business models.

All typical hedges are expensive (Swiss franc, gold). Equal duration makes sense. Need to broadly think through more stable aspects of the tech sector for balance within volatility, and consider the Swissy or Yen for stability.