Asks what the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs means for markets.
Francine Lacqua
Hugh Gimber
The key issue is the extra uncertainty from trade policy versus rebate benefits. Last year, CapEx outside tech was down, unusual outside a recession.
Hugh Gimber
Doesn't think it changes inflation or growth outlook. Assumes little feed-through from corporate rebates to consumers. Base case remains unchanged, but potential range of outcomes widens.
Hugh Gimber
The dollar is the most interesting market move. The Supreme Court overruling creates more uncertainty, therefore dollar down.
Hugh Gimber
A weaker dollar is good for the US, aiding reshoring. A stronger Euro towards 1.20 would concern the ECB, potentially leading to rate cut discussions in H2.
Hugh Gimber
On Iran, markets welcome rumors of a deal framework. The US has an interest in avoiding an extended oil price spike ahead of midterms.