Prior to the war, the economy and earnings were good. If the war ends, markets will refocus on those tailwinds. Themes like AI and private credit will return.

Short-term view: Earnings season has started well, but estimates likely need to come down a bit, which is concerning at current market multiples (21x).

Market breadth at new highs is mediocre/unconvincing. Expect technology/software stocks to come back, semis need a correction (currently happening), and other cyclicals will do reasonably well if economy stays okay.

The rotation from high-multiple growth to value/small-mid caps that began late last year should continue, as value performs better when growth is good.

Concerned about AI-related capital expenditure numbers and corporate cash usage. Focus should be on free cash flow growth, not just bond issuance.

Prefers portfolios with price-to-free-cash-flow below benchmark and ROIC above benchmark for quality and growth.

Financials have been weak year-to-date after a great 2023. Current numbers are pretty good, so would add to financial positions on this weakness.

Emerging markets are a great long-term play because developed world population isn't growing; planetary growth depends on the emerging market consumer.

Acknowledges volatility but sees it as necessary due to demographic shrinkage in China/Japan and developed world.