• Questions whether President Trump now officially owns the current economy, given the mixed narrative of recovery from Biden-era inflation.
    speaker1
  • Kevin Hassett
    Affirms it is Trump's economy, citing his leadership on current and future policy. Acknowledges inflation is down and real incomes are growing, but the hole from past inflation isn't fully filled.
  • Asks how to square the argument (from Kevin Warsh) that AI-driven productivity allows for lower rates without inflation, with recent softness in employment data.
    speaker1
  • Kevin Hassett
    States unequivocally the US is in its biggest productivity boom since the 90s, driven by AI, similar to the internet's impact. Links Caterpillar's outperformance to Trump's capital expensing policies and AI-driven productivity gains across all companies.
  • Kevin Hassett
    Raises the open question of job creation lagging as productivity soars, suggesting a potential transition period where fewer workers are needed for the same output.
  • Asks for his take on last week's market volatility, where concerns shifted from tech overspending to fears of big tech cannibalizing smaller software firms.
    speaker1
  • Kevin Hassett
    Reports from Silicon Valley contacts that software engineer productivity is up 50-80% due to new AI tools. Argues client relationships and trust will protect established big firms (like Salesforce) from rapid displacement by pure AI platforms for a long time.
  • Points to concerning jobs data: high layoffs, hot jobless claims, and falling JOLTS openings. Asks what's happening in the jobs market.
    speaker3
  • Kevin Hassett
    Identifies three forces: 1) Strong GDP growth (4% into year-end) pushing demand up. 2) Productivity boom potentially reducing labor demand. 3) Decline in labor force due to reduced illegal immigration, lowering the breakeven job number.
  • Asks about concern over a potential additional government shutdown and its economic impact.
    speaker1
  • Kevin Hassett
    Believes the government shutdown threat is behind them, as he hasn't talked to anyone on either side interested in another shutdown.
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