Confusion is reigning. The bounce we've seen is still relatively low (mid-$90s Brent), meaning demand destruction is happening and the market wants to price in a near-term solution.

The level of demand destruction we have seen coming across especially in Asia... is potentially a bigger number than what we are seeing so far.

We are at the point where demand is responding more aggressively than initially thought. China holding back helps alleviate immediate stress, but refined product stress is clear globally.

Even with the setback we saw on Friday these prices are still too high relative to what potential consumers are prepared to pay.

It takes 25-30 days from Middle East. Last jet fuel ships arrived last week. Markets are tightening very fast. No global shortage yet, but it is tightening. Routes may be cut back first.

Ahead of the summer period if we don't see any solution then there will be a lot of focus on the peak summer travel.

Physical market is tricky, small North Sea market. The bidding war for spot oil is lurking. When contracted oil doesn't arrive, you pay up. Europe's fuel imports came from US or Middle East (not Russia), so closure will have an impact, likely at higher prices.

Saudi Arabia raised their official selling price to Asia. So again, $95 on the screen is not where consumers or refineries are paying. We are most certainly significantly higher than that.

Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between dollar, bond yields, and rate expectations. Once the dust settles, investors will see the major drivers that underpinned precious metals have only strengthened. The path is still for higher prices.

The positioning is quite low. We only just started to see a small pick-up now.

Commodities have been on a general rising path since 2020. The old cure for high prices (incentivizing supply) may no longer apply because supply is the potential struggle. We will see high prices to ensure enough incentive to produce, as demand is still rising.

From a portfolio perspective, commodities need to be part of that.