The dollar has completely retraced its post-conflict rally, coinciding with risk indicators moving back to pre-conflict levels.

April is seasonally the worst dollar month, which may be conspiring against it. Previous long treasury/short dollar positions have been wiped out.

Medium-term, declining custodial holdings at the NY Fed and an edging away from dollar reserves in IMF data are structural reasons to be bearish the dollar.

This indicates Asian central bank intervention and a lack of rebalancing into dollars.

I don't see a reason to expect a move away from the dollar in the Gulf region; only Iran wants to price outside the dollar.

Given current financial market volatility, the status quo is likely to hold.

We are in a more politically uncertain environment globally, which makes investors more cautious about holding dollar assets and their hedging decisions.

If the risk premium stays idiosyncratic to the US, pressure on the dollar from the forwards market will continue.

We don't share that view; we still see the probability of two rate cuts, dependent on the data.

According to a Taylor rule framework, US policy rates are about where they should be. The key is whether the labor market slows faster than inflation rises.