Funding markets have tightened by 13-15 basis points, running above interest on reserves instead of below

Bond market too big and Fed QT has made funding markets too small relative to $38 trillion bond market

Market is undoing Fed rate cuts by 13-15bps due to funding market tightness

Funding rates spike on settlement dates (15th/30th) due to $150-200B cash demand for bond settlements

Fed administrative rates diverging from targets because bond market grown too big from deficits and government spending

Fed stopping QT in 3 weeks may not be enough - may need asset purchases or liquidity injections

Printing money to fix funding markets enables more government borrowing, creating inflation risk

Stimulating economy with no population growth creates inflation rather than jobs

Bottom 50-70% of population sees economy as train wreck due to prices rising faster than paychecks

Fed fracturing on three key issues: inflation permanence, labor market strength, and neutral rate level

Stimulating for 150K jobs/month with no population growth requires wage increases that fuel inflation

Interest rates may already be at neutral or stimulative levels, with market saying 4% vs Fed saying 3%