Treasuries resumed role as haven; two's tens curve steepest in 4+ years; is there more curve steepening to go?
Scarlet Fu
Oksana Aronov
Treasuries only hedge in recession; in other scenarios they struggle; duration/interest rate risk will remain volatile if economy resilient.
Fed cut rates 3x last year, now on pause; what did cutting cycle accomplish for affordability?
Scarlet Fu
Oksana Aronov
Policy ineffective for affordability; 10-year yield and mortgage costs higher now than when Fed started cutting.
What damage from keeping Fed balance sheet at current levels?
Scarlet Fu
Oksana Aronov
Yield curve inversion lost forecastability because $7-9T bonds on Fed balance sheet suppress yields.
With rates converging globally, how much will Kevin Warsh's comments reverberate for international investors?
Scarlet Fu
Oksana Aronov
US remains convergence point for global wealth; no market deep enough to absorb wealth creation besides US Treasuries/dollar.