Asks about his note comparing the market run-up to 2008 and what he's looking at.
Francine Lacqua
Michael Hartnett
Key difference is the 2008 shock was demand-led (China, India). This is a supply shock, more like 1973, 1979, 2022. The market came in thinking it's short-term and will be over quickly.
Asks if that was complacency.
Francine Lacqua
Michael Hartnett
Everyone thought it would be folded earlier. People were long and hedged, saying they didn't want to sell because policy would change. Now, they might have to sell to change policy.
Notes the market was pricing a short resolution, but geopolitics transcripts didn't support that. Asks what is most mispriced.
Francine Lacqua
Michael Hartnett
Equities still look rich relative to where they could go in a genuine shock where the Fed can't cut. The risk is numbers need to get worse before they get better.
Asks where he puts money right now.
Francine Lacqua
Michael Hartnett
The consumer stocks are the ones that have really discounted stagflation. For a trade, lower income consumer stocks disliked at the moment are the best opportunity.