Both parties positioning ahead of renewed talks; Iran's ability to close Strait is a disruptive long-term tool that won't be fully resolved regardless of conflict outcome.

Nothing agreed until everything agreed; Strait closure capability remains future risk.

Iran's geopolitical position worse today than 2018; makes sense to focus on nuclear issue; parts of Iranian government willing to deal just on nuclear piece.

Hezbollah and Hamas weakened; Assad fallen; Iran in worse place strategically.

Expect continued back-and-forth Strait closures; particularly bad news for Gulf allies relying on Strait for energy commerce.

Iran tested US by announcing Strait open then maintaining blockade; shows they can close again; immediate tool for geopolitical influence.

Pakistan benefits from mediation role for US support against Taliban and India; Iranian regime factions have communication challenges.

Revolutionary guards never bought into JCPOA; harder to get consensus without strong supreme leader.

Pakistan done admirable job; continued talks positive signal but caution needed; nothing agreed until everything agreed.

Lebanon remains important part of formula.